The NC trend is less Democrats, more reliable Democratic voters

Registration numbers have been a focus of late, especially in the battleground states.
I can’t speak for how the numbers work in other states, but I do know that if you think that lower numbers of Democrats in North Carolina mean less Democratic votes, you’d be wrong.
The quirky trend of the Old North State for the past two decades or so is that the people migrating here tend to be more reliable Democratic voters than the natives. There was a very good Public Policy Polling study of this in 2008 and what they found holds today. It’s also likely accelerating. The most recent PPP look at the presidential race has the president leading his challenger by a huge margin among the people who have been here ten years or less.

From this month’s Exile on Jones Street Column in the Indy, which came out this week:

Following the rout of 2010, GOP strategists maintained that Obama’s win in North Carolina was an anomaly driven by unusually high turnout. They pointed to a drop in Democratic registrations.

But as the PPP study points out, the people moving here, even independents, are proving to be more reliable Democratic voters than the natives. Born and bred Tar Heels came of age in what was historically a one-party state; if you wanted a say in legislative or county commissioner races, you registered as a Democrat so you could vote in the primary.

That same dynamic identified in 2008 is at play this year. The recent PPP poll on the presidential race notes that Obama and Romney are tied 47-47 for the native vote. The president’s lead can be attributed to an edge among non-native voters, including a 66-to-27-percent lead among those who’ve been here less than 10 years.

There’s a lot of things to note in the registration outlook and the demographic changes, but one that gets little mention is that all the recruiting the state is doing and the new jobs coming to the state – our rapid growth over the past 30 years – is starting to have a real impact on out politics.

Saturday Morning Post

Crazy week in NC politics. Crazy.
The scrambling continues after Bev Perdue’s announcement. Lt. Guv Walter Dalton is in because, as someone said, that’s what Lt. Guvs do. Bill Faison is fixing to run as well.
Both gentlemen need to step up and state their positions on the marriage amendment as does everyone planning to get into the race. One thing Perdue’s decision did was guarantee a lot more voters at the polls during the primary. That changes the equation for the marriage amendment vote, which would have taken place when the primary was almost exclusively a Republican event. Now, with soon-to-announce Pat McCrory looking like he’s avoided a serious primary challenge and the likelihood that Romney will break Newt in Florida, there’s a significant shift of energy toward Dems in the primary. If Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx gets in the race that energy level will rise even higher because it will draw in significant numbers of urban African-American voters. U.S. Rep Brad Miller is also being encouraged to consider a run.

Here’s a couple of NC links for the am on this lovely day:
Shuler? Anyone?
– The NAACP national leadership is going to be on Jones Street on February 11 for HKonJ.
Howard Coble says he’s running again
– Rep. Larry Pittman, who was recently appointed to fill a vacant seat, says he’d like to bring back public hangings and includes abortion doctors with the folk he’d string up;
– Via Progressive Pulse – Turns out Stephen LaRoque , co-sponsor of a recent pro-billboard bill, owns some billboards.

Dalton’s views

In case you’re wondering about Walter Dalton’s views you can review his 2008 responses to Project Vote Smart‘s political courage survey. On the topic of abortion, which will surely be a point of scrutiny if he runs for Guv, he says it should be illegal after the first trimester, but he would not outlaw it in the case of rape, incest or if the mother’s health was threatened.