The NC trend is less Democrats, more reliable Democratic voters

Registration numbers have been a focus of late, especially in the battleground states.
I can’t speak for how the numbers work in other states, but I do know that if you think that lower numbers of Democrats in North Carolina mean less Democratic votes, you’d be wrong.
The quirky trend of the Old North State for the past two decades or so is that the people migrating here tend to be more reliable Democratic voters than the natives. There was a very good Public Policy Polling study of this in 2008 and what they found holds today. It’s also likely accelerating. The most recent PPP look at the presidential race has the president leading his challenger by a huge margin among the people who have been here ten years or less.

From this month’s Exile on Jones Street Column in the Indy, which came out this week:

Following the rout of 2010, GOP strategists maintained that Obama’s win in North Carolina was an anomaly driven by unusually high turnout. They pointed to a drop in Democratic registrations.

But as the PPP study points out, the people moving here, even independents, are proving to be more reliable Democratic voters than the natives. Born and bred Tar Heels came of age in what was historically a one-party state; if you wanted a say in legislative or county commissioner races, you registered as a Democrat so you could vote in the primary.

That same dynamic identified in 2008 is at play this year. The recent PPP poll on the presidential race notes that Obama and Romney are tied 47-47 for the native vote. The president’s lead can be attributed to an edge among non-native voters, including a 66-to-27-percent lead among those who’ve been here less than 10 years.

There’s a lot of things to note in the registration outlook and the demographic changes, but one that gets little mention is that all the recruiting the state is doing and the new jobs coming to the state – our rapid growth over the past 30 years – is starting to have a real impact on out politics.

Serious guy

Here’s the RNC’s response to President Obama’s appearance at UNC-Chapel Hill yesterday.
The idea seems to be that Mitt Romney is serious and the president is not funny (thus the hashtag at the end).
The whole thing falls terribly flat and if it is an attempt to reach young people, well, it sure seems like some old dude dreamed it up.
We expect to quickly see serious ads about why it’s important to stay off of lawns or avoid dancing to that devil music. And if you kids don’t turn down that Walkman you’ll ruin your hearing.

Obama over Romney by 5 in NC

That’s the headline out of the new PPP poll.

Mitt Romney may have effectively wrapped up the GOP nomination with Rick Santorum’s withdrawal yesterday, but PPP’s newest North Carolina poll really shows how much Romney was hurt by the process with Barack Obama as the ultimate beneficiary.

President Obama now leads Romney by 5 points in North Carolina, 49-44. That’s the largest lead we’ve found for him in monthly polling dating back to November of 2010. Obama has a 51-38 advantage with independents and is particularly strong with women (54-39), African Americans (90-7), voters under 30 (61-33), and folks in the Triangle (60-33).

Hagan announces recs for federal positions

Lots of familiar names on the list of Kay Hagan’s recommendations for federal appointments for NC including Jim Phillips and Hampton Dellinger. Here’s the release:

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Senator Kay R. Hagan (D-NC) today announced recommendations to President Obama for key federal appointments in North Carolina’s three federal districts. In a letter to the President, Hagan made recommendations for two federal district court judgeships, three U.S. Attorney and three U.S. Marshall positions. The full text of Senator Hagan’s letter is available here.

“In March, I convened a four-person, statewide panel, led by former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Burley Mitchell, to screen candidates for these federal appointments,” Hagan said. “My primary objective has been to find the most qualified, competent and fair-minded candidates, of whom all North Carolinians will be proud. I am proud to make these recommendations to the President, and will be in close consultation with the White house as the confirmation process moves forward.”

Senator Hagan has also pledged to ensure that North Carolina receives appropriate representation on the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals.

In addition to Justice Mitchell, the screening panel included Janice McKenzie Cole, a former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District and founder of the Cole Immigration Law Center in Hertford; Anthony di Santi of western North Carolina, the vice-president of the North Carolina State Bar and founding partner at di Santi, Watson, Capua & Wilson in Boone; and Jim Phillips of central North Carolina, a partner at the law firm Brooks, Pierce, McLendon, Humphrey & Leonard in Greensboro.

“Our committee chose a group of exceptionally qualified North Carolinians, and Senator Hagan made excellent selections from this group,” Justice Mitchell said. “The President cannot go wrong. Senator Hagan’s careful method of choosing these appointments, relying on our committee to do the initial vetting and then making the final selections, should be a model to other Senators.”

”I am happy to have had the opportunity to serve and honored Senator Hagan asked me to participate,” McKenzie Cole said. “I support how she has opened the process to allow all individuals interested in these positions to be considered. As a result of the panel’s screening and Senator Hagan’s final review, I believe the White House has been provided an esteemed list of candidates from which to make their final decisions.”

“I commend Senator Hagan for deciding upon the process she used to select candidates to recommend to President Obama,” di Santi said. “The process was very fair and open to any candidate who was interested in a position. I was honored to serve on the committee and pleased that Senator Hagan considered our recommendations. I think she has done excellent work and the state of North Carolina can be proud of her efforts.”

“The manner with which Senator Hagan opened up the process made many more North Carolinians aware of and interested in these positions,” Phillips said. “I am confident that the White House will find Senator Hagan’s recommendations to be highly qualified and well suited to successfully represent North Carolina.”

Hagan recommended the following individuals to serve North Carolina. The President will make the final selection from Senator Hagan’s choices.

U.S. District Court Judge Eastern District: Allen Cobb, Senior Resident Superior Court Judge for Hanover and Pender counties; Jennifer May-Parker, Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District handing criminal appellate cases; and Quentin Sumner, Senior Resident Superior Court Judge in Nash County.

U.S. District Court Judge Middle District: Catherine Eagles, Senior Resident Superior Court Judge in Guilford County; Anita Earls, executive director for the Southern Coalition for Social Justice in Durham, who this week was named to the North Carolina State Board of Elections; and Edwin Wilson, Senior Resident Superior Court Judge in Rockingham County.

As stated in Senator Hagan’s letter to the President: “As I have previously discussed with the Office of the White House Counsel, it is my belief that the current U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of North Carolina, George Holding, should be allowed to complete the ongoing investigations of public officials in the state. During my conversations with the Office of the White House Counsel, there was an interest expressed by the Counsel’s office to potentially appoint a separate individual to begin handling other matters not related to these investigations. Should you decide to do so, the following names are provided for your consideration.” Sen. Hagan made the following three U.S. Attorney selections for the Eastern District in the event the President chooses to select another U.S. attorney for all other matters not pertaining to Holding’s current investigations of former public officials.

U.S. Attorney Eastern District: Benjamin David, District Attorney for New Hanover and Pender counties; Hampton Dellinger, a partner in the law firm of Robinson Bradshaw & Hinson who has experience working with local, state and federal law enforcement; and Thomas Walker, a partner at Alston and Bird, LLP, concentrating on complex federal and state government investigations and white-collar defense.

U.S. Attorney Middle District: Lee Farmer, the Member-Manager for the law offices of R. Lee Farmer, who has an extensive background in civil litigation and the general practice of law; Ripley Rand, Special Superior Court Judge in Wake County; and Susan Taylor, Resident Superior Court Judge in District 20A and 20B.

U.S. Attorney Western District: Peter Anderson, a partner at Anderson Terpening, PLLC, who specializes in federal criminal defense, complex commercial litigation and corporate compliance counseling; Danny Davis, Chief District Court Judge for the 30th Judicial District; and Anne Tompkins, a partner at Alston and Bird, who served in 2004 and 2005 as one of four Assistant U.S. Attorneys in the initial Iraqi Regime Crimes Liaison Office in Baghdad, Iraq.

U.S. Marshal Eastern District: Richard Holden, who worked for the North Carolina Highway Patrol from 1969 to 2004, rising to become Colonel, Commander; Scott Parker, Commander of Nash County Sheriff’s Office of Narcotics; and Bronnie Quinn, Private Investigator specializing in civil cases for litigation at the law firm of Riddle & Brantley in Goldsboro.

U.S. Marshal Middle District: W.R. Stafford, who after 29 years of service, retired in 2004 as the Assistant Chief of Police of the Greensboro Police Department; Al Stewart, who as Contingent Commander of the U.S. Department of State in Beirut, Lebanon, helped establish a new Police Mission for the Lebanese Police in 2007 and 2008; and Becky Wallace, who served as U.S. Marshal for the Middle District from 1994 to 2003, overseeing 1,600 arrests in 1994 alone, and continues to serve as a Reserve Deputy Sheriff in Montgomery County.

U.S. Marshal Western District: John McDevitt, Sheriff of Burke County and 30-year law enforcement veteran; Kelly Nesbit, Chief Deputy U.S. Marshal in the Western District; and Charles Peeler, Deputy U.S. Marshal for the Middle District, a position he has served in for 19 years.

U.S. Department of Agriculture positions in North Carolina

Senator Hagan also today announced her selections for Department of Agriculture positions in North Carolina. Her letter to President Obama is available here.

“I am confident that these individuals would bring the same passion and commitment to these positions as they have brought to their many years of public service in my home state of North Carolina,” Hagan wrote to the President.

For the USDA Rural Development State Director, she recommended William Hobbs, who worked for 20 years for the USDA Farmers Home Administration and is now the Director of the Multi Family Housing Programs at the USDA Rural Development; and Randall Gore, who has been working in rural development in North Carolina for 20 years, currently serving as Area Director for USDA Rural Development.

For the USDA Farm Services Agency State Director, she recommended Philip Farland, a Marketing and Outreach Specialist with the North Carolina Department of Agriculture; and Walter Smith, who has served as a County Executive Director for the USDA Farm Services Agency since 1979.

The Long Struggle

Via the White House:

. . . The American people are the most insurance-minded people in the world. They will not be frightened off from health insurance because some people have misnamed it “socialized medicine”.
I repeat–what I am recommending is not socialized medicine.
Socialized medicine means that all doctors work as employees of government. The American people want no such system. No such system is here proposed.
Under the plan I suggest, our people would continue to get medical and hospital services just as they do now–on the basis of their own voluntary decisions and choices. Our doctors and hospitals would continue to deal with disease with the same professional freedom as now. There would, however, be this all-important difference: whether or not patients get the services they need would not depend on how much they can afford to pay at the time.
I am in favor of the broadest possible coverage for this insurance system. I believe that all persons who work for a living and their dependents should be covered under such an insurance plan. This would include wage and salary earners, those in business for themselves, professional persons, farmers, agricultural labor, domestic employees, government employees and employees of non-profit institutions and their families.
In addition, needy persons and other groups should be covered through appropriate premiums paid for them by public agencies. Increased Federal funds should also be made available by the Congress under the public assistance programs to reimburse the States for part of such premiums, as well as for direct expenditures made by the States in paying for medical services provided by doctors, hospitals and other agencies to needy persons.
Premiums for present social insurance benefits are calculated on the first $3,000 of earnings in a year. It might be well to have all such premiums, including those for health, calculated on a somewhat higher amount such as $3,600.
A broad program of prepayment for medical care would need total amounts approximately equal to 4% of such earnings. The people of the United States have been spending, on the average, nearly this percentage of their incomes for sickness care. How much of the total fund should come from the insurance premiums and how much from general revenues is a matter for the Congress to decide.
The plan which I have suggested would be sufficient to pay most doctors more than the best they have received in peacetime years. The payments of the doctors’ bills would be guaranteed, and the doctors would be spared the annoyance and uncertainty of collecting fees from individual patients. The same assurance would apply to hospitals, dentists and nurses for the services they render.
Federal aid in the construction of hospitals will be futile unless there is current purchasing power so that people can use these hospitals. Doctors cannot be drawn to sections which need them without some assurance that they can make a living. Only a nation-wide spreading of sickness costs can supply such sections with sure and sufficient purchasing power to maintain enough physicians and hospitals.
We are a rich nation and can afford many things. But ill-health which can be prevented or cured is one thing we cannot afford.

Harry S. Truman, Special Message to Congress Recommending a Comprehensive Health Program, Nov. 19, 1945