The NC trend is less Democrats, more reliable Democratic voters

Registration numbers have been a focus of late, especially in the battleground states.
I can’t speak for how the numbers work in other states, but I do know that if you think that lower numbers of Democrats in North Carolina mean less Democratic votes, you’d be wrong.
The quirky trend of the Old North State for the past two decades or so is that the people migrating here tend to be more reliable Democratic voters than the natives. There was a very good Public Policy Polling study of this in 2008 and what they found holds today. It’s also likely accelerating. The most recent PPP look at the presidential race has the president leading his challenger by a huge margin among the people who have been here ten years or less.

From this month’s Exile on Jones Street Column in the Indy, which came out this week:

Following the rout of 2010, GOP strategists maintained that Obama’s win in North Carolina was an anomaly driven by unusually high turnout. They pointed to a drop in Democratic registrations.

But as the PPP study points out, the people moving here, even independents, are proving to be more reliable Democratic voters than the natives. Born and bred Tar Heels came of age in what was historically a one-party state; if you wanted a say in legislative or county commissioner races, you registered as a Democrat so you could vote in the primary.

That same dynamic identified in 2008 is at play this year. The recent PPP poll on the presidential race notes that Obama and Romney are tied 47-47 for the native vote. The president’s lead can be attributed to an edge among non-native voters, including a 66-to-27-percent lead among those who’ve been here less than 10 years.

There’s a lot of things to note in the registration outlook and the demographic changes, but one that gets little mention is that all the recruiting the state is doing and the new jobs coming to the state – our rapid growth over the past 30 years – is starting to have a real impact on out politics.

Morning Post birthday edition

Today is the 51st birthday of Barack Obama. Funny how this tax thing has made it much more difficult for anyone to bring up the birther thing. That’s a nice change this birthday, but it’s not the best gift. The best gift is that Mitt Romney’s tax returns are now becoming a cultural cliché.

What’s really in Mitt Romney’s tax returns is turning into a set piece for any would be political humorist. Here’s an example via alternet. 10 Theories About What Mitt Romney’s Really Hiding in Those Tax Returns

That’s the kind of stuff that pushes out into the layers of voters who don’t pay attention to the chattering classes.
My guess is there’s nothing out of the ordinary in the returns if you list your occupation as vulture capitalist and tend to shift a lot of your holdings overseas to reduce your tax burden. I’m sure that if we all could discuss this in a ‘quiet room’ there would be no disagreement that as Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom recently said, the candidate “has never zeroed out his tax liability” and has always paid “100 percent of what was owed.” So leave the man alone. What is it with you people?

Except Romney knows that an election is not a board meeting and what’s in the returns will be discussed in very loud places like say, what we now call Carolina Panthers Stadium. You might want to recall that Romney’s 2011 tax return has yet to drop.

The calculation seems to be that he can ride to victory without more transparency. If he were a charismatic type who could deliver a barn burner he could probably get away with it. But he’s said it’s his business experience that makes him more qualified than the current occupant of the White House. If we can’t see the for the record the complete picture of the fruits of his labor in the business world, then his major claim to the presidency falls apart.

Unemployment rate up a tick to 8.3, July jobs came in at 163K

Better than expected. Look for the focus of the political spin to be on what 8.3 percent means.
Something like:
Romney Camp: Unemployment rate up
Obama Camp: People who gave up looking for work are back looking for work

Also to be debated is whether 163,000 is a large number or a small number.

The commissioner’s statement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Commissioner’s Statement on the Employment Situation News Release

Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press
under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the
data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

Statement of

John M. Galvin
Acting Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Friday, August 3, 2012

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the
unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, was essentially unchanged.
Thus far in 2012, job growth has averaged 151,000 per month,
about the same as the monthly average for 2011 (+153,000). In
July, employment rose in professional and business services, food
services and drinking places, and manufacturing.

Professional and business services employment increased by
49,000 over the month. Computer systems design added 7,000 jobs,
and employment in temporary help services continued to trend up
(+14,000).

In July, food services and drinking places added 29,000
jobs. Employment in this industry has grown by 292,000 over the
past 12 months.

Manufacturing employment rose by 25,000 in July. The motor
vehicles and parts industry had fewer seasonal layoffs than is
typical for July, contributing to a seasonally adjusted
employment increase of 13,000. Employment continued to trend up
in fabricated metal products (+5,000).

Health care employment continued to trend up in July
(+12,000). Over the past 2 months, job growth in health care
averaged 12,000 per month, compared with job gains averaging
28,000 per month during the 12 months ending in May.

Employment in utilities decreased by 8,000 in July,
reflecting a labor-management dispute. (In the establishment
survey, workers who are off payroll for the entire pay period
that includes the 12th of the month are not counted as employed.)

Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls increased by 2 cents in July to $23.52. Over the past
12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.7 percent.
From June 2011 to June 2012, the Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 1.7 percent.

Turning now to data from the survey of households, the
unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, and the number of unemployed
persons, at 12.8 million, were essentially unchanged in July.
The labor force participation rate, at 63.7 percent, and the
employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little over
the month. These indicators have shown little movement thus far
in 2012.

Among persons who were neither working nor looking for work
in July, 2.5 million were classified as marginally attached to
the labor force, down 256,000 from a year earlier. These
individuals had not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the
survey but wanted a job, were available for work, and had looked
for a job within the last 12 months. The number of discouraged
workers, a subset of the marginally attached, was 852,000 in
July, also down from a year earlier.

In summary, payroll employment rose in July (+163,000). The
unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, was essentially unchanged.

Morning Post Day 97

Good morning. Today is the day the new Obamacare rules for contraception coverage takes effect. That means no co-pays, evah. Somehow this is some radical idea opposed by many religious leaders. Well, tough, it’s the law of the land now. Here’s a graphics heavy and plainly-worded presentation by the Guttmacher Institute that make it seem like a thing any reasonable society would want.

Reproductive Health Reality Check on the politics of it. The Key to Unlocking the Youth Vote: Why Birth Control is a Force Multiplier in the 2012 Election

Also, here’s a nice, concise write-up on the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature results that converted another climate-change skeptic by confirming again that the planet is getting warmer and mankind is the causing of it all. Wunderground: Oil industry-funded “BEST” study finds global warming is real, manmade

Shocking news from the campaign trail . . .
Independent study of Romney tax plan says even if it yield all its touted benefits to the economy (just like those Bush cuts did) it still makes the rich richer at the expense of everyone else.
From the WaPo: Study: Romney tax plan would result in cuts for rich, higher burden for others

Even if tax breaks “are eliminated in a way designed to make the resulting tax system as progressive as possible, there would still be a shift in the tax burden of roughly $86 billion [a year] from those making over $200,000 to those making less” than that.

What would that mean for the average tax bill? Millionaires would get an $87,000 tax cut, the study says. But for 95 percent of the population, taxes would go up by about 1.2 percent, an average of $500 a year.

More shocking news from NC:
– People are wondering if Romney’s lead in recent polls means North Carolina is really in play or not or what or whatnot. If your memory goes back all the way back to 2008, you might recall that Obama didn’t lead McCain in a poll until September 23. Real Clear Politics N.C.: Trending Red Again or Truly Up for Grabs?

– Perhaps the FLOTUS will have an opinion on the subject when she visits Greensboro and Raleigh today.
– NC Policy Watch has a look at a new report from the Budget and Tax Center showing the link between loss of rights and wage decline in North Carolina. New report: The decline in worker bargaining power is behind falling wages
– It appears that Richard Burr thinks Marco Rubio needs a little more time before seeking national office. The Hill: GOP senator suggests Sen. Rubio could use ‘a little more experience’
– And, we’re still waiting on those vetoes. No word as of 9 a.m. Morning Post Day 98 Vetoes Anyone?