Five Days

Greeted this am by a new Reuters article.

The first political caucus in Iowa on January 3 and the first primary in New Hampshire on January 8 could produce the nominee for each party, leaving millions of voters headed to nominating contests later in the spring with the nominees already effectively chosen, they say.

They meaning a few campaign types with dogs in the fight.
A bit far fetched, I think, but at least one party could have things in pocket shortly after the South Carolina primary a little later in the month.
So, yeah, the whole thing could be over but the shouting by the end of January.
Plenty of shouting after that.

Elon Poll: Clinton, Rudy leading in South Atlantic

This from the folks up the road in the town of Elon:

Elon Poll finds Clinton, Giuliani lead pack in South Atlantic states

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008 continues to strengthen across the South Atlantic region of the country with more than double the support from Democrats than her closest rivals, according to the latest Elon University Poll, which surveyed residents of five southeastern states.

Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is the current favorite for the Republican nomination, though a high number of undecided voters leaves the GOP race up for grabs. And the war in Iraq continues to be the most pressing issue on the public’s mind as the first presidential primary elections approach in January.

The poll, conducted Nov. 4-8 and 12-14 by the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs, surveyed 1,374 residents from Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percent. The sample is of the population in general and does not restrict respondents by their voter eligibility or their likelihood of voting in an election.

Respondents were split on which party to support in 2008. Thirty-five percent of respondents indicated support for the Republicans and 36 percent favored the Democrats. Twenty-three percent of citizens are unsure of which party they will support at this time.

“Given these numbers it looks like it’s going to be a close race between the Democrats and Republicans come November,” said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll. “But for the respective party primaries, there are definite differences. In these states, Democrats have settled on a candidate while among Republicans it appears many people are still searching for a candidate.”

Of the respondents who plan to support the Democratic Party, 45 percent indicated support for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama and John Edwards followed with 17 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Nineteen percent of Democrat supporters are undecided.

The race is much closer for the Republicans. Of the respondents who favor the Republican Party, Rudy Giuliani leads with 25 percent of their support, followed by Fred Thompson with 16 percent and Mitt Romney with 12 percent. Twenty-nine percent of Republican supporters are currently undecided.

The survey also asked respondents about their thoughts on various public policy issues. In an open-ended question, respondents said the most important issues facing the United States are the following:

Iraq War: 31 percent
Economy: 13 percent
Terrorism and security: 11 percent
Health care costs: 8 percent
Immigration: 8 percent

“Not surprisingly, the Iraq War continues to be the most prevalent issue among citizens,” Bacot said. “What will be interesting to see is whether the issue burdens Republicans like it did in the midterm elections, particularly in light of two competing issues — health care and the economy — that tend to favor Democrats.”

When considering what issues will influence their vote for president, respondents provided the following answers:

Iraq War: 83 percent
Health care costs: 81 percent
Economy: 80 percent
Immigration: 75 percent
Taxes: 74 percent
Family values: 68 percent
Political corruption: 67 percent
Education: 65 percent
Transportation: 34 percent

The non-partisan Elon University Poll conducts frequent scientific telephone polls on issues of importance to citizens. The poll results are shared with media, citizens and researchers to facilitate representative democracy and public policy making through the better understanding of the opinions and needs of citizens in the state and region.

Sunday Morning Post

Gosh golly, it’s been a while:
For starters, I’m glad to see that glad to see Rudy’s getting the attention he deserves even around here. Someone explain why we can’t just jump from fact checking and ad busting to some kind of ‘here’s how stupid they think you are’ metric. This latest pegs the damn meter in my book.
I mean, this guy is not an idiot, but he thinks most of the people who will vote in the Republican primary must be. Socialized-freekin’-medicine? Jeez Rudy, what damn year do you think we live in? Most of the folks who put your party in power are watching their benefits slip away along with the quality of their health care and all you got to offer is that socialized medicine is bad and the fucked up system we have now is good and keeps the commies away. Hyperbole is one thing, but lying about medical realities for a couple more poll percentages is shameful.

– Pam’s got a good clip of Jim Neal at the Equality NC conference.
– The nicest thing about Time Select is that it put MoDo’s ramblings out of reach. Why, I’d almost forgot how whip-smart she is.
– Oh, and ladies – CNN says folks is calling you slutty.
– And this, well, I was a surfing around for something and saw a lovely set of predictions about the 2006 Senate elections. So confident , so proud, so totally wrong.

Finally, a few words from Krugman via Alternet:

Paul Krugman: The media are a very important force in it. They shape perceptions, and they conceal issues. Look at the 2000 presidential campaign, for example, where the media were so heavily biased against Al Gore. That’s what brought Bush to within a Supreme Court decision of the White House. So if you look at, certainly these last seven years, the role of the media in not telling you reasons why you should be skeptical about the course of the war, for example, it’s enormously important.

We have a situation right now in which there are several major parts of the news media that are for all practical purposes part of “movement conservatism” — Fox News, the New York Post, the Washington Times — and in which other news organizations are intimidated, at least to some extent. I sometimes talk about what I call “asymmetrical intimidation.” If you say a true but unflattering thing about Bush or in fact about any other prominent conservative, oh, boy! People are going to go after you. I mean, I’ve got people working full-time going after me, right? But if you say a false, unflattering thing about a Democrat or a progressive, no risk … And that shapes coverage, no question about it. It’s better now, but it’s still very asymmetric. The other thing we should mention about the media is their addiction to the trivial. We’ve got the most substantive election coming up, I think, ever. We’ve got clear differences on policies between parties. And what are we seeing news stories about? John Edwards’ hair and Hillary Clinton’s laugh … this is horrifying! And again — it’s asymmetric. I can think of lots of unflattering things to say about any of the Republican candidates — Mitt Romney’s saying his sons are serving the country by helping him get elected! — but it doesn’t get nearly as much play in the media.